Foreword

There is neither a structure nor a texture to this blog. The subject matter can be anything and everything under the sky that I feel about at any given point that I happen to sit and blog rambling about everything in general. My thoughts and views are basically influenced by what I read, hear, gather, and ponder... if there is any copyright violation which I have not duly acknowledged, kindly let me know.

My world comprises of LO the little one, OA the other adult at home, kiddo the brother :)

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Sep 4, 2009

Tilted balance -- My Take on Today's AP Scene

Around 120 MLAs have gathered signatures demanding Jagan as CM and the rest of the candidates have their own doubts.. even before YS cong was split into Kotla and YS camps for CM and cabinet posts but YS had been a success because of his padayatra and his rapport with Rajiv and his family. So still the camps do exist but they are under control due to an able leadership..

It is a fact that Cong has got no thumping majority in elections, just about managed to get the needed seats, so if say around 20 to 30 MLAs slip out from their nest and join the opposition, the existing govt. will lose majority and time for re-election. YS sensing this instability was working on operation Aakarsha was working on gathering people from all parties just to be prepared for any untoward happening within the party.

In this current scenario, even a minor breeze can tilt the balance of govt. Coming to alternative from other parties..

CBN has lost credibility by joining with TRS and not coming up with constructive plan other than "we are united to defeat congress" agenda along with the feeling that they cannot do without using the family of NTR or the late legend's name.

PRP, recently celebrating 1-yr. birthday, having lost so many people to various parties is trying to take baby steps in politics yet, so Chiru is not ready and he is clearly unable to steer the party in any direction and looks like he himself is torn apart in various directions, so he needs to mature a lot before going to be a CM.

JP is the sole warrior of Lok Satta and it might take years and years to gather a decent number of MLAs in his cadre, so with his everything-should-be-transparent politics, he is ruled out..

Left parties by themselves wont be able to garner enough seats to be in power..

So, the sensible choice that I can hope for at this point is.. in order to reduce the burden on already drought-striken, recession-affected, confused people of AP.. to hope and pray that congress continues in power and the other parties come together and do the actual job of being a watchful opposition and force the govt. to be in right direction than attempt to come to power by any means in view of welfare of the state. Their focus now should be 2014 elections and for now do the best to retain the balance and function as usual..

but this is polit(r)ics as I always refer and anything can happen.. just hoping anarchy doesnt add up to the rest of problems common man has to face.

So, in all Jagan, Jaipal or XYZ... I want Cong to be in the govt for the next 5 yrs.. as unfortunately it is just about a 100 days since the party came into power the second time around.

FACT/FIGURE ANALYSIS..

2009, 15th loksabha election results ivi..Total Seats 294...

Party Won
INC 158
TDP 105
PRP 18
Others 13 (independents/rebels)

So, in a highly hypothetical situation with a sole agenda to not let Cong CM-elect come to power, if they all come together and if say around 25 MLAs come out with assammati this and that, then there might be a very remote chance for re-election.

IF AND IF such thing happens, with the anti-defection law in place(any party elect if he/she chooses to shift party after contesting and winning from a party will also lose the seat he/she won), opposition wont come into power even if they all come together. Congress being at the center cant help the situation too if this is the case and then it is going to be election time again.

BUT we all know and have already seen how this patch-work parties pull in different directions and only make it a lose-lose situation. So, sensible choice is to not change the equation and let it continue.

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